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ALERT: LARGE COUNTER-PROTESTS LIKELY AMID ELEVATED ETHNO-RELIGIOUS TENSIONS

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Since 30 July, violent anti-immigration unrest has erupted across multiple cities in northern England and in Belfast (Northern Ireland). In response, on 10 August, Stand Up to Racism will hold a national ‘Stop the Far Right’ day of protests across the UK. Approximately 35 counter-demonstrations have been announced in various locations. Sibylline's Europe desk is forecasting that over the coming weekend counter-demonstrations in major cities are likely to merge with pro-Palestine protests, drawing thousands and disrupting transit, though they will likely remain peaceful with a slight risk of harassment and antisemitism. In Bristol, far-left Antifa elements may incite violence, while a protest at Reform UK's headquarters in the capital London could see increased political violence. Anti-immigration protests have likely peaked, but may resurge from 9-11 August, with 'flash protests' more likely. Renewed unrest is expected in Belfast, with risks of racially motivated violence, particularly in the Midlands, northern English cities, and Birmingham. Heightened ethno-religious tensions and social media misinformation may further escalate violence.

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ALERT: LARGE COUNTER-PROTESTS LIKELY AMID ELEVATED ETHNO-RELIGIOUS TENSIONS
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