Special Report and Briefing – China-Taiwan
18 September at 1500hrs BST (London) / 1000hrs EDT (New York)
Summary:
Cyber Intelligence Analysts Kailyn Johnson and Denise Schipani comment on how Cyber threats are closely tied to geopolitical dynamics, with state-sponsored cyber activities often used to advance national strategic, political, and military goals, making it crucial for businesses to understand the convergence of cyber risks, physical security, and geopolitics in order to develop resilient security strategies.
The Cyber desk has also released a report on this topic. This Special Report aims to outline how China actively uses cyber operations to achieve its strategic objectives vis-à-vis Taiwan. It not only highlights Chinese cyber activity targeting Taiwan but also the associated cyber risks facing Taiwanese, Taiwan-based and global organisations in the context of three geopolitical scenarios: the status quo, a diplomatic and/or military escalation and a direct military invasion. It also assesses the likelihood of each scenario manifesting in the coming twelve months. To request the report, please click here.
Sibylline will also be hosting a webinar on this topic on 18 September at 1500hrs BST (London) / 1000hrs EDT (New York), please sign up here.
Analyst Comment:
Cyber threats do not emerge in a vacuum. They are often inextricably linked with geopolitical affairs; this is especially the case for state-sponsored cyber activity. Cyber operations are often used as tools to facilitate a country’s strategic, political and military pursuits; they typically shift based on the evolution of bilateral relationships along with ongoing regional tensions. Similarly, regional and global conflicts invariably result in an increasingly complex cyber threat landscape for businesses, which can suddenly find their risk palette overcrowded with a plethora of differing tactical and operational threats. Businesses operating globally or across sectors will face varying and often nuanced risks depending on their operating jurisdictions, highlighting the increased need to understand the physical security implications stemming from cyber risks within various markets. Therefore, understanding the convergence of physical security, the cyber risk landscape and geopolitics is essential for organisations that wish to grasp the wider context of the threats to their operations and assets. Indeed, a top-down approach to appreciating ‘the bigger picture’ cyber threats, be they state-sponsored, criminal or hacktivist, will enable organisations to develop robust security and incident response policies at the tactical level. Understanding these threats in the context of a dynamic geopolitical landscape ultimately aids companies to become more agile and to adopt a proactive approach to security.
The most prominent example of geopolitics influencing cyber threats is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. At various points during the conflict, Russia has utilised cyber operations to supplement its kinetic activity, particularly at the outset of the fighting. The Russian state-sponsored group ‘Sandworm’ used destructive malware to target critical infrastructure in order to impede Ukraine’s response to the invasion. Cyber operations remain a key tactic in Russia’s arsenal in Ukraine, as well as a means to target other global entities both in relation to the conflict and Moscow’s wider geopolitical aims. Similarly, China uses cyber operations to further its own influence globally. Beijing is notorious for conducting cyber espionage operations against its perceived adversaries (including the US and Taiwan). However, it also does not shy away from targeting perceived allies to monitor sentiments, policy and military action. To bolster its own domestic economy, China employs cyber espionage to steal intellectual property and other strategic information that can aid domestic sectors amid fierce global competition. This is becoming more pertinent as key economies continue to decouple from Chinese industries. These examples are among many that highlight how cyber attacks are employed in conjunction with national strategic pursuits, further stressing how and why a nuanced understanding of these issues is essential for a holistic comprehension of the related risks.
CISOs and CSOs must work together to better understand the comprehensive threat landscape facing their businesses and to ensure resiliency. At Sibylline, we collaborate with our regional desks to assess the geopolitical dynamics that influence cyber threats across the globe. We monitor state-sponsored, cyber criminal, hacktivist and cyber terrorism operations and explore the related risks facing organisations’ security, operations and reputations; we also develop strategic forecasts detailing how these risks will possibly develop as a result of the complex global landscape. We provide both strategic and technical reports on cyber threats and critically assess the most pertinent risks. We also produce tactical intelligence that can be utilised by CTI and SOC teams for their own investigations and security detections. We explore the strategic context behind an array of cyber threats to better understand how these threats will possibly develop, as well as their impact on various global sectors.
If you would like to know more about Sibylline and our cyber and geopolitical risk products, contact us about trialling our Cyber Risk Register subscription at info@sibylline.co.uk