On 28 June, Iran will hold a snap presidential election, following the death of hardline President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on 20 May. The election comes amidst significant socio-economic health concerns, substantially elevated regional tensions linked to the Israel-Hamas war and increasing concerns over the longevity of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A likely conservative victory will moderately increase policy risks and set the tone for Iran’s presence on the world stage, its relations with global powers and its potential development of nuclear capabilities. Prospects for domestic policy changes will also increase risks of unrest, particularly linked to socio-economic health and labour flexibility concerns.

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