Burnham faces Yemen dilemma as Houthi advance threatens Britain’s economy

YEMEN

British military advisers are heading to Saudi Arabia as Riyadh cancels European oil shipments and seeks help protecting Bab el-Mandeb.

BRITAIN is being drawn towards a deepening war in Yemen as a Houthi advance threatens one of the world’s most important shipping routes and risks inflicting a devastating new shock on the UK economy.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has agreed to send British military advisers to Saudi Arabia after Riyadh requested help repelling Houthi forces advancing along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and defending its oil infrastructure.

He is also considering further undisclosed Saudi requests for operational support, according to Bloomberg, but faces an acute dilemma over how far Britain can go without becoming embroiled in another front of the Iran war.

Saudi Arabia has already informed European refiners that some crude cargoes scheduled for late September had been cancelled following the closure of its East-West Pipeline.

The pipeline, attacked last week by Iran-backed Iraqi militias, carries Saudi crude from the kingdom’s oil-producing Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. It provides Riyadh with its principal means of bypassing the heavily disrupted Strait of Hormuz.

But that escape route has now been disabled just as the Houthis have seized territory overlooking Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow southern gateway to the Red Sea.

British officials have reportedly warned Burnham that Houthi control of the strait would have a “catastrophic” impact on international shipping, driving another surge in oil prices and inflation.

Brent crude is already approaching $110 a barrel, while markets are pricing in five quarter-point Bank of England interest-rate rises by the end of 2027.

The timing could hardly be worse.

The Office for Budget Responsibility is preparing its economic and fiscal forecasts ahead of next month’s Budget, while higher winter energy costs threaten Burnham’s central promise to ease Britain’s cost-of-living crisis.

Annabelle Walker, Sibylline’s Associate Analyst for Europe, says the decision confronts the Prime Minister with competing economic and political dangers.

“The decision ultimately comes down to a toss-up between the economic costs of shipping disruption through the Bab al-Mandeb and the domestic fallout of providing support to Saudi Arabia and risking being drawn further into the conflict.”

The East-West Pipeline could remain out of service for up to six weeks.

Saudi Arabia is also an important British economic partner, with bilateral trade worth £13.4bn in the year to the first quarter of 2026. Refined oil accounted for 57.8% of UK goods imports from the kingdom.

The immediate crisis follows a dramatic Houthi offensive along Yemen’s western coast.

Owen Williams, Sibylline’s Middle East and North Africa analyst, says the group has captured the strategically important port of Mokha, advanced south to Dhubab and seized islands in Bab el-Mandeb, including Perim, which sits in the middle of the strait.

Forces aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognised government have so far failed to reverse the advance, allowing the Houthis to consolidate their newly captured positions.

Williams says the group’s priority remains control of Yemen rather than simply advancing Iran’s agenda. But Tehran stands to benefit enormously even if it neither planned nor directed the offensive.

With Hormuz severely disrupted, the East-West Pipeline disabled and an Iran-aligned armed group gaining the ability to threaten Bab el-Mandeb, three routes intended to provide alternatives to one another are under simultaneous pressure.

“This isn’t just, ‘Oil is going to go up by four dollars tomorrow,’” Williams says.

“This could have genuine consequences if it were sustained for a long period of time.”

And consequences extend far beyond crude prices.

A Sibylline report published in June warns that prolonged disruption in Bab el-Mandeb would force ships around the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 20 days to journeys and driving up freight, insurance, storage and import costs.

Congestion at already stretched Southern African ports would amplify the disruption.

Delays to wheat, fertiliser, petrochemicals, manufactured goods and perishable produce could fuel inflation and deepen food insecurity, particularly across East Africa.

Washington, however, appears reluctant to intervene.

Donald Trump has reportedly rejected a Saudi request for US strikes, offering limited targeting assistance unless American forces or assets are directly threatened.

Lewis Galvin, Sibylline’s North America analyst, says Washington probably believes Europe should assume more responsibility for protecting a trade route from which it derives significant benefit.

That echoes leaked Signal exchanges from March 2025, when senior Trump officials complained that the US was rescuing Europe by striking the Houthis.

But Galvin says American restraint also reflects dwindling military stockpiles, reluctance to open another front and fears that renewed operations against the Houthis would prompt Iran to intensify its own attacks.

The US National Defense Strategy published in January also expects Gulf states to assume greater responsibility for defending themselves against Iranian proxies.

Saudi Arabia has one of the world’s best-funded and most technologically advanced militaries after decades of American support.

Britain, meanwhile, has previous experience of confronting the Houthis. HMS Diamond destroyed nine Houthi drones and a ballistic missile during a six-month Red Sea deployment in 2023-24.

It provided air-to-air refuelling, access to Diego Garcia and Typhoons to protect a US carrier group before joining an American strike on a Houthi drone-manufacturing facility near Sanaa in April 2025.

After the Iran war began this March, Britain deployed additional radar, missile-defence and counter-drone systems across the Gulf, including Sky Sabre air defences to Saudi Arabia and other regional partners.

Walker says that precedent makes further defensive assistance plausible, particularly systems capable of protecting Saudi oil installations, airports and other critical infrastructure.

Direct offensive support for a Saudi-backed counteroffensive remains much less likely because of the risk of domestic backlash and a wider British role in Yemen.

Alexander Lord, Sibylline’s Europe and Eurasia regional director, says a Type 45 destroyer would probably be Britain’s most useful maritime contribution because of its sophisticated air-defence capabilities. A frigate could potentially deploy alongside it, creating what he describes as a “potent force”.

RAF assets based at Akrotiri could also support operations, while Britain could provide Saudi forces with surveillance, intelligence and targeting assistance.

But the Royal Navy faces chronic shortages of available frigates, destroyers, crews and support vessels.

Both aircraft carriers are already earmarked for NATO commitments, while sending further RAF aircraft could weaken Britain’s existing posture against Iran.

Bombing Houthi positions along Yemen’s western coast would not, by itself, secure Bab el-Mandeb. That would require a sustained naval presence – precisely the option most constrained by Britain’s shortage of available warships.

“We do have capability,” Lord says. “It’s just that it underscores how stretched we are.”