Ceasefire Special Edition: Middle East Crisis Update

The US–Iran ceasefire has reduced the immediate risk of a wider war, but tensions across the Middle East remain high. A new Sibylline report examines the likelihood of conflict resumption and the implications for regional stability, global trade and energy flows. The assessment highlights Iran’s continued leverage over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the risk of escalation linked to Israeli operations in Lebanon, and the potential for disruption from Iran-aligned groups despite the pause in hostilities. With the ceasefire assessed as fragile and key pressure points unresolved, the report sets out what this means for organisations operating across the region.

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Country *AfghanistanAlbaniaAlgeriaAmerican SamoaAndorraAngolaAnguillaAntarcticaAntigua & BarbudaArgentinaArmeniaArubaAscension IslandAustraliaAustriaAzerbaijanBahamasBahrainBangladeshBarbadosBelarusBelgiumBelizeBeninBermudaBhutanBoliviaBosnia and HerzegovinaBotswanaBouvet IslandBrazilBritish Indian Ocean TerritoryBritish Virgin IslandsBruneiBulgariaBurkina FasoBurundiCabo VerdeCambodiaCameroonCanadaCaribbean NetherlandsCayman IslandsCentral African RepublicChadChileChinaChristmas IslandCocos IslandsColombiaComorosCongo, Democratic Republic of theCongo, Republic of theCook IslandsCosta RicaCroatiaCubaCuraçaoCyprusCzechiaCôte d'IvoireDenmarkDjiboutiDominicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEgyptEl SalvadorEquatorial GuineaEritreaEstoniaEswatiniEthiopiaFalkland IslandsFaroe IslandsFijiFinlandFranceFrench GuianaFrench PolynesiaFrench South TerritoriesGabonGambiaGeorgiaGermanyGhanaGibraltarGreeceGreenlandGrenadaGuadeloupeGuamGuatemalaGuernseyGuineaGuinea-BissauGuyanaHaitiHeard Island And Mcdonald IslandHondurasHong Kong SAR ChinaHungaryIcelandIndiaIndonesiaIranIraqIrelandIsle of ManIsraelItalyJamaicaJapanJerseyJordanKazakhstanKenyaKiribatiKosovoKuwaitKyrgyzstanLao People's Democratic RepublicLatviaLebanonLesothoLiberiaLibyaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMacao SAR ChinaMadagascarMalawiMalaysiaMaldivesMaliMaltaMarshall IslandsMartiniqueMauritaniaMauritiusMayotteMexicoMicronesiaMoldovaMonacoMongoliaMontenegroMontserratMoroccoMozambiqueMyanmarNamibiaNauruNepalNetherlandsNew CaledoniaNew ZealandNicaraguaNigerNigeriaNiueNorfolk IslandNorth KoreaNorth MacedoniaNorthern Mariana IslandsNorwayOmanPakistanPalauPalestinian TerritoriesPanamaPapua New GuineaParaguayPeruPhilippinesPitcairn IslandsPolandPortugalPuerto RicoQatarRomaniaRussiaRwandaRéunionSaint HelenaSaint Kitts and NevisSaint LuciaSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesSamoaSan MarinoSaudi ArabiaSenegalSerbiaSeychellesSierra LeoneSingaporeSint MaartenSlovakiaSloveniaSolomon IslandsSomaliaSouth AfricaSouth Georgia and South SandwichSouth KoreaSouth SudanSpainSri LankaSt. BarthélemySt. MartinSt. Pierre & MiquelonSudanSurinameSvalbard and Jan MayenSwedenSwitzerlandSyriaSão Tomé & PríncipeTaiwanTajikistanTanzaniaThailandTimor-LesteTogoTokelauTongaTrinidad & TobagoTunisiaTurkeyTurkmenistanTurks & Caicos IslandsTuvaluU.S. Virgin IslandsUS Minor Outlying IslandsUgandaUkraineUnited Arab EmiratesUnited KingdomUnited States of America (USA)UruguayUzbekistanVanuatuVatican CityVenezuelaVietnamWallis And Futuna IslandsWestern SaharaYemenZambiaZimbabwe

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