Ceasefire Special Edition: Middle East Crisis Update

The US–Iran ceasefire has reduced the immediate risk of a wider war, but tensions across the Middle East remain high. A new Sibylline report examines the likelihood of conflict resumption and the implications for regional stability, global trade and energy flows. The assessment highlights Iran’s continued leverage over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the risk of escalation linked to Israeli operations in Lebanon, and the potential for disruption from Iran-aligned groups despite the pause in hostilities. With the ceasefire assessed as fragile and key pressure points unresolved, the report sets out what this means for organisations operating across the region.

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Country *AfghanistanAlbaniaAlgeriaAmerican SamoaAndorraAngolaAnguillaAntarcticaAntigua and BarbudaArgentinaArmeniaArubaAustraliaAustriaAzerbaijanBahamasBahrainBangladeshBarbadosBelarusBelgiumBelizeBeninBermudaBhutanBoliviaBosnia and HerzegovinaBotswanaBouvet IslandBrazilBritish Indian Ocean TerritoryBruneiBulgariaBurkina FasoBurundiCabo VerdeCambodiaCameroonCanadaCayman IslandsCentral African RepublicChadChileChina, People’s Republic ofChristmas IslandCocos IslandsColombiaComorosCongo, Democratic Republic of theCongo, Republic of theCook IslandsCosta RicaCroatiaCubaCuraçaoCyprusCzech RepublicCôte d’IvoireDenmarkDjiboutiDominicaDominican RepublicEast TimorEcuadorEgyptEl SalvadorEquatorial GuineaEritreaEstoniaEthiopiaFalkland IslandsFaroe IslandsFijiFinlandFranceFrance, MetropolitanFrench GuianaFrench PolynesiaFrench South TerritoriesGabonGambiaGeorgiaGermanyGhanaGibraltarGreeceGreenlandGrenadaGuadeloupeGuamGuatemalaGuernseyGuineaGuinea-BissauGuyanaHaitiHeard Island And Mcdonald IslandHondurasHong KongHungaryIcelandIndiaIndonesiaIranIraqIrelandIsraelItalyJamaicaJapanJerseyJohnston IslandJordanKazakhstanKenyaKiribatiKorea, Democratic People’s Republic ofKorea, Republic ofKosovoKuwaitKyrgyzstanLao People’s Democratic RepublicLatviaLebanonLesothoLiberiaLibyaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMacauMadagascarMalawiMalaysiaMaldivesMaliMaltaMarshall IslandsMartiniqueMauritaniaMauritiusMayotteMexicoMicronesiaMoldovaMonacoMongoliaMontenegroMontserratMoroccoMozambiqueMyanmarNamibiaNauruNepalNetherlandsNetherlands AntillesNew CaledoniaNew ZealandNicaraguaNigerNigeriaNiueNorfolk IslandNorth MacedoniaNorthern Mariana IslandsNorwayOmanPakistanPalauPalestine, State ofPanamaPapua New GuineaParaguayPeruPhilippinesPitcairn IslandsPolandPortugalPuerto RicoQatarReunion IslandRomaniaRussiaRwandaSaint HelenaSaint Kitts and NevisSaint LuciaSaint Pierre & MiquelonSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesSamoaSan MarinoSao Tome and PrincipeSaudi ArabiaSenegalSerbiaSeychellesSierra LeoneSingaporeSint MaartenSlovakiaSloveniaSolomon IslandsSomaliaSouth AfricaSouth Georgia and South SandwichSpainSri LankaStateless PersonsSudanSudan, SouthSurinameSvalbard and Jan MayenSwazilandSwedenSwitzerlandSyriaTaiwan, Republic of ChinaTajikistanTanzaniaThailandTogoTokelauTongaTrinidad and TobagoTunisiaTurkeyTurkmenistanTurks And Caicos IslandsTuvaluUS Minor Outlying IslandsUgandaUkraineUnited Arab EmiratesUnited KingdomUnited States of America (USA)UruguayUzbekistanVanuatuVatican CityVenezuelaVietnamVirgin Islands, BritishVirgin Islands, U.S.Wallis And Futuna IslandsWestern SaharaYemenZambiaZimbabwe

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