Increasing Access to the Arctic in the Long Term Will Increase Commercial Opportunities, Regional Tensions Copy

US Northern Command conducted Arctic Edge 2025 in Alaska throughout August, underscoring the escalating strategic importance of the Arctic region.

The melting ice is creating new opportunities for energy, trade, and fishing, but it is also intensifying geopolitical competition—especially as Russia and China increase their regional presence.

In our latest report, we forecast:

• Strained diplomatic relations will diminish the effectiveness of the Arctic Council, increasing geopolitical competition and volatility in the region
• Melting sea ice will increase commercial opportunities for the US and Canada, though regional tensions will also rise in parallel.
• A monitor-and-respond approach is highly unlikely to mitigate Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic in the medium-to-long term.

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