Europe grows uneasy as Ukraine war crosses borders

EUROPE

From Latvia to Greece, security incidents linked to the Ukraine war are unsettling European politics far beyond the front line

THE collapse of Latvia’s government after a series of Ukrainian drone incursions has exposed growing anxiety across Europe that the war with Russia is becoming harder to contain and that many countries remain ill-prepared for its spillover effects.

Prime Minister Evika Siliņa resigned on Thursday after her fragile coalition unravelled amid criticism over how the authorities handled drones crossing into Latvian territory from Russia.

The latest incident marked the second time a Ukrainian drone had crashed in Latvia since March, intensifying scrutiny over the country’s preparedness and air defences.

Defence minister Andris Sprūds had already stepped down days earlier following mounting scrutiny over gaps in the country’s air defences.

While the coalition had long been unstable, the incidents crystallised wider fears in one of NATO’s frontline states that Europe’s security systems may not be as ready as many had assumed.

“There is a growing realisation that many countries may not be as prepared as people assumed,” says Magdalena Lembovska Young, Europe analyst at Sibylline.

“We used to think the Baltics and Poland were really well prepared because they understand the threat and have invested massively. But it’s not only about putting money somewhere. It’s also training, coordination, management.”

The incidents have intensified concern across northern and eastern Europe over a growing pattern of drone incursions, electronic interference and hybrid disruption linked to the war in Ukraine.

In recent months, drones believed to be linked to Ukrainian operations have crossed into Baltic and Nordic airspace after Russia attempted to disrupt them electronically.

On Friday, Finland issued a rare emergency alert affecting Helsinki after fears that a drone may have entered its territory, though no confirmed object was ultimately identified.

Authorities defended the move as a precaution in a densely populated area.

While governments scramble to respond, concern over the growing drone threat has already prompted calls for a regional “Drone Wall” stretching across NATO’s eastern flank.

Last September, Estonian defence firm Defsecintel Solutions and Latvian company Origin Robotics announced plans for what they described as Europe’s first operational drone wall, a network of mobile counter-drone missile systems intended to defend the Baltics and Poland against Russian attacks.

“Politicians have called for a Drone Wall. We are ready to build it. We just need the green light,” says Defsecintel chief executive Jaanus Tamm.

Yet recent incidents have highlighted the gap between strategic ambition and operational readiness.

In one Baltic drone incident, according to Ms Lembovsk Young, emergency services reportedly arrived more than an hour after an explosion. Elsewhere, alarm systems failed to activate entirely.

The incidents are forcing governments into increasingly difficult decisions over how aggressively to respond to drones crossing their borders, particularly when interception itself carries risks.

“If it’s in a populated area, the drone could fall onto a building,” Ms Lembovsk Young says.

“There are also legal gaps, coordination gaps and uncertainty over who is responsible for what.”

The issue is politically explosive in the Baltics, where support for Ukraine remains strong but public sensitivity to security failures is acute.

“There is a genuine feeling of: we are not safe, and we don’t trust our defence systems to protect us,” she says.

Last year Estonian defence minister Hanno Pevkur warned that Moscow’s recent wave of hybrid activity, from drone incursions and airspace violations to cyber attacks and election interference, was designed to force NATO members to focus increasingly on their own security at the expense of support for Ukraine.

The latest incidents appear to underline those concerns.

What makes the situation particularly uncomfortable for European governments is that Russia does not necessarily need to attack NATO territory directly to generate political pressure.

Even incidents indirectly linked to the war can fuel public anxiety, expose capability gaps and deepen internal divisions.

That dynamic is now extending beyond Europe’s eastern flank.

In Greece, a fisherman recently discovered what authorities believe was a Ukrainian naval drone hidden inside a cave near Lefkada island in the Ionian Sea. The device reportedly contained explosives and was later destroyed in a controlled detonation.

The assumption among analysts is that the drone may have been linked to Ukrainian attempts to target Russia’s shadow fleet in the Mediterranean, which Moscow uses to transport sanctioned oil exports.

Although the incident is unlikely to alter the Greek government’s support for Ukraine, it has caused unease domestically because the threat suddenly felt much closer to home.

“Countries like the Baltics live with the perception of the Russian threat every day,” Ms Lembovsk Young says. “But Greece has felt more insulated from the war.”

She warns that incidents of this kind could increasingly be exploited by populist or hard-right parties arguing that European states are paying a growing domestic price for the conflict.

“In some countries, especially those further away from Russia, the instinctive public reaction becomes: we just want this war to be over,” she says.

While mainstream European support for Kyiv remains intact, analysts warn that persistent low-level security incidents could gradually erode public resilience, particularly if economic pressures and political instability intensify simultaneously.

Concern over the growing drone threat has already prompted calls for a regional “Drone Wall” stretching across NATO’s eastern flank.

Last September, Estonian defence firm Defsecintel Solutions and Latvian company Origin Robotics announced plans for what they described as Europe’s first operational drone wall, a network of mobile counter-drone missile systems intended to defend the Baltics and Poland against Russian attacks.

“Politicians have called for a Drone Wall. We are ready to build it. We just need the green light,” says Defsecintel chief executive Jaanus Tamm.

Yet recent incidents have highlighted the gap between strategic ambition and operational readiness.

In one Baltic drone incident, according to Ms Lembovsk Young, emergency services reportedly arrived more than an hour after an explosion. Elsewhere, alarm systems failed to activate entirely.

For European governments, the concern is no longer simply whether they can continue supporting Ukraine militarily, but whether their societies are prepared for a prolonged period of hybrid disruption spilling across borders.

“Russia is watching very carefully,” Ms Lembovsk Young says. “It is taking notes.”

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