Europe’s biggest migration reform begins – but challenges loom

EUROPE

Six years in the making, the EU’s landmark migration pact promises tighter border controls and faster asylum procedures, but analysts warn implementation challenges could test the bloc’s unity and capacity.

The European Union’s landmark Migration and Asylum Pact enters force this month amid warnings that capacity shortfalls, legal uncertainty and uneven implementation could complicate the bloc’s efforts to tighten border controls and streamline asylum procedures.

First proposed in 2020, the Pact is the culmination of a decade-long effort to address shortcomings exposed by the 2015-16 migration crisis, when European asylum systems struggled to cope with unprecedented numbers of arrivals and governments clashed over responsibility for processing and resettlement.

The reforms introduce mandatory screening at external borders, enhanced biometric registration, faster asylum procedures and new solidarity mechanisms designed to share responsibility more evenly among member states.

Together, the measures represent the most significant overhaul of the EU’s migration and asylum framework in a decade.

During the 2015-16 migration crisis, more than a million migrants and refugees arrived in Europe, overwhelming reception systems and triggering bitter disputes between member states over responsibility for processing and resettlement.

Supporters argue the reforms will strengthen border security, improve crisis preparedness and reduce opportunities for abuse of the asylum system. Yet analysts warn implementation is unlikely to be smooth.

“It’s a very complex issue,” Magdalena Lembovska Young, Europe Analyst at Sibylline, says. “We’re talking about ten different legislative acts that are all intertwined and affecting all member states. It requires a lot of investments and resources.”

Member states have spent the past two years preparing for implementation, but readiness remains uneven.

Earlier this year, the European Commission reported that only 11 member states were fully on track to connect to the upgraded Eurodac biometric database, a cornerstone of the new system.

A central aim of the Pact is to reduce so-called secondary movements by requiring migrants to remain in the member state where they first enter the EU while their claims are processed.

In practice, that will place greater responsibility on frontline countries such as Italy and Greece, which have historically served as the bloc’s main entry points.

The new solidarity mechanism is intended to offset that burden by allowing other member states to relocate asylum seekers, provide operational support or make financial contributions.

Countries that decline to accept migrants can instead pay around €20,000 per person.

While the mechanism has been presented as a breakthrough in burden-sharing, critics argue the €20,000 payment is unlikely to cover the full costs incurred by host countries, which must still provide accommodation, process asylum claims and expand administrative capacity.

As a result, frontline states may continue to carry much of the practical burden.

The Pact also reinforces the long-standing principle that asylum claims should be processed in the country where a migrant first enters the EU. While that requirement already existed under the Dublin system, enforcement was often inconsistent and many migrants continued their journeys elsewhere in Europe.

By strengthening registration and tracking mechanisms while allowing other member states to opt out through financial contributions, the reforms could leave entry-point countries such as Italy and Greece responsible for a greater share of the burden than before.

“Many of them, especially those that face strong local opposition against migration, would rather opt to pay,” Lembovska Young says.

Questions also remain over how effectively the system could be enforced during a future surge in arrivals.

“We don’t really know what the circumstances are going to be because the EU doesn’t really have those enforcement mechanisms,” Lembovska Young says.

Detections of irregular border crossings at the EU’s external borders dropped by 26 per cent in 2025 to approximately 178,000, the lowest level since 2021.

That decline reflects a combination of factors, including greater cooperation with countries of origin and transit, increased enforcement efforts and a less attractive environment for irregular migration.

Nevertheless, migration has risen steadily up the EU agenda in recent years. Lembovska Young says it is now viewed as the bloc’s third most important priority after security and the economy, helping explain the scale of the reforms now being introduced.

A key innovation of the Pact is its integration of migration into wider resilience and crisis preparedness planning.

EU institutions will seek to forecast migration pressures and identify future capacity requirements across member states.

“It shows that organisations, institutions, governments and companies need to embed these strategic questions into their strategic thinking and forecasting,” Lembovska Young says.

The new system is also intended to strengthen enforcement through enhanced biometric registration.

Under the new system, migrants will be subject to enhanced biometric registration, including fingerprints and facial recognition, making it easier for authorities to determine where an individual first entered the EU and reducing opportunities to lodge multiple claims under different identities.

The measures are expected to strengthen authorities’ ability to identify security risks, detect fraudulent documentation and improve information sharing across the bloc, while making it harder for organised criminal networks to exploit irregular migration routes.

At the same time, the EU is seeking to strengthen returns and accelerate procedures for applicants deemed unlikely to qualify for protection. Individuals arriving from countries with very low asylum approval rates will face accelerated border procedures intended to prevent lengthy delays.

Migration management is also becoming increasingly tied to the EU’s external relationships.

Growing reliance on cooperation with countries in North Africa, the Western Balkans and elsewhere may improve border control efforts but could also create new strategic dependencies, giving partner governments additional leverage in wider political, trade and security negotiations.

Climate change is expected to add pressure in the years ahead.

“Climate change is going to be increasingly a driver of migration,” Lembovska Young says.

“Climate change is going to be a factor that pushes people to find more livable conditions.”

Despite the overhaul, one of the EU’s most persistent migration challenges remains unresolved.

Fewer than 30% of those ordered to leave the bloc ultimately depart, largely because of limited cooperation from countries of origin, difficulties establishing identities and obstacles obtaining travel documents.

Those shortcomings, combined with uneven readiness across member states, mean policymakers should expect a turbulent rollout before the reforms begin delivering their intended benefits.

As Lembovska Young puts it:

“It will get worse before it gets better.”

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