How Trump is reshaping the Americas

LATIN AMERICA

From Venezuela to Cuba, Washington is using pressure, alliances and leverage to curb Chinese and Russian influence

DONALD Trump is tightening US control across the Americas, successfully curbing what Washington calls malign influence and reshaping the region’s political balance.

The US-led “Shield of the Americas” initiative is a case in point. Unveiled at a summit in Florida earlier this month, it brings together 18 countries under the banner of the Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition (A3C), a bloc of largely ideologically aligned governments.

While it excludes major players such as Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, the hardest edge of this strategy is most clearly seen when it comes to Cuba.

In recent months, the US has moved to restrict fuel supplies to Havana and encouraged regional partners to do the same, contributing to widespread blackouts, shortages and growing unrest. At the very least, Cuba demonstrates how Washington is leveraging regional partners to apply pressure in pursuit of its strategic aims across the hemisphere.

“Their entire national grid collapsed last week. All 10 million inhabitants were affected,” says Lewis Galvin, lead Americas analyst at Sibylline.

“Havana is always subjected to blackouts, but I can’t remember the last time we saw the entire island’s grid.”

As war with Iran began, Secretary of State Marco Rubio – the son of Cuban immigrants – prioritised the Americas, instead.

The day after his tour of Caribbean nations last month, several countries dropped support for Cuba’s doctor programme – a key source of revenue for Havana.

Reports from Havana now suggest the regime may begin opening parts of its economy to the US, including allowing the diaspora to invest in the private sector.

“That’s huge” says Galvin.

“And it’s interesting to note that while all this has been happening, the US has also announced aid shipments to Cuba. It’s unlikely that the US is going to run in boots on the ground and blow Havana apart.”

The turning point came in Venezuela.

The US-backed removal of Nicolás Maduro earlier this year altered the balance of power across the region – cutting off a key source of support for allied governments while signalling a far more assertive US posture.

Together, these developments illustrate a broader approach: where governments align, Washington builds partnerships; where they resist, it applies pressure.

Formally, the Shield initiative is focused on tackling transnational organised crime. In practice, it is also something more.

Instead, the coalition is better understood as an attempt to consolidate political alignment and reassert US leadership across the region.

“Trump wants to be seen at the top of this pile,” Galvin says. “The only people who are there are his really staunch allies.”

Yet alignment is not purely ideological. Many countries remain deeply dependent on the US for trade, investment and security assistance.

“A lot of these countries are heavily relying on US support,” Galvin says, adding that many are effectively falling into line because they lack viable alternatives.

That dependence is reinforced through an increasingly transactional approach to diplomacy.

Galvin says negotiations are no longer confined to single issues, with Trump increasingly linking trade, security and political demands.

Underpinning all of this is a broader effort to diminish Russian and Chinese influence.

“The Russia-China angle is crucial,” Galvin says.

China’s footprint is primarily economic, and it is here that US pressure is most visible.

In Chile, a major subsea cable project originally set to be built by a Chinese firm is now under pressure to shift towards US involvement, reflecting concern over Beijing’s role in critical infrastructure.

In Panama, Chinese-linked port contracts have already been pushed out, while in Honduras the new leadership has signalled a willingness to reconsider diplomatic recognition of Beijing in favour of Taiwan.

The impact is uneven. China’s economic presence remains deeply embedded, particularly where it offers infrastructure financing Washington is unwilling to match.

“If the US isn’t willing to invest in your infrastructure, China is,” Galvin says. “So some countries will be caught in the crosshairs.”

Russia, by contrast, appears more exposed.

Its influence, tied largely to security relationships with countries such as Venezuela and Cuba, is likely to diminish as those ties weaken.The result is a region that is neither fully aligned nor fully independent, but increasingly fragmented.

Even longstanding relationships are being recalibrated.

In the Caribbean, the decision by several countries end Cuba’s medical exchange programmes while still sending humanitarian aid shows how “they’re trying to stick to their historical ties whilst also moving along with whatever the US is calling for,” Galvin says.

The real lesson from Venezuela is that, while Reagan sought a united hemisphere built on democratic values and economic freedom, Trump does not care.

What the removal of Nicolás Maduro actually achieved was to strip away one of China and Russia’s most important footholds in the region, forcing both to reassess their position and limiting their ability to project power across the hemisphere.

And what has followed – from pressure on Cuba to moves against Chinese infrastructure – reflects a broader effort to regulate external influence rather than impose ideology.

In many ways, Trump is accelerating a trend already under way. Across Latin America, rising insecurity and economic strain have driven a move towards more assertive, hardline leadership- a style that mirrors his own.

“Latin America is struggling badly with insecurity, and we’re seeing a larger number of presidential candidates adopting a more assertive style of politics,” says Galvin

” It’s that more robust language of government and policymaking, and it aligns with the US.”

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