Islamist Terrorism Threat Will Remain Elevated During Holiday Period in Europe

Europe has long faced a persistent risk of terrorist attacks during the holiday period, which has been exacerbated in recent years by the Israel-Hamas war. Extremist Islamist networks have instrumentalised the
war to mobilise and radicalise supporters, calling them to commit violence against Jews and Christians. We assess that this trend will continue this year, despite the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. Therefore, the risk of attacks
against soft targets will be elevated ahead of the holiday period.

Key assessments:

• The risk of attacks will remain elevated during the holiday period, especially in Western Europe. The main threat will come from sole perpetrators or small local groups using low-technology weapons and tactics.
• The security measures at Christmas markets will increase financial spending for organisers, while also driving operational disruption for businesses.
• Rising ethno-religious tensions and the polarisation on migration policies will further exacerbate the security threats during the holiday period.

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