Israel-US-Iran war will increase Iranian proxy attack, domestic unrest risks in Europe

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has significantly heightened the risk of Iranian proxy attacks targeting US and Israeli interests across Europe. Recent drone strikes on the Royal Air Force (RAF) Akrotiri base in Cyprus and suspected espionage at NATO bases underscore a growing threat of kinetic and hybrid attacks.

In our latest Situation Update Brief, we evaluate how Europe’s uneven response and potential for direct involvement will exacerbate these security risks. With a proven history of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked hostile activities on the continent, the threats of cyber attacks, intimidation and transnational repression have reached a critical inflection point

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