Organised crime tightens its grip across Latin America despite crackdowns

AMERICAS

A more assertive US security posture is driving tougher enforcement across the region, yet narcotics trafficking networks and illegal mining groups continue to evolve – sustaining long-term risks for supply chains, personnel and infrastructure.

BUSINESSES operating across parts of the Americas are no longer simply sidestepping organised crime but rather being forced to operate alongside it as criminal networks become more deeply entrenched across key economic regions.

In markets such as Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Haiti, gang competition, cartel fragmentation, extortion-related crime and illegal mining are concentrating disruption along vital logistics corridors and other high-value commercial areas.

As a result, companies will need to adapt operating models and security strategies to environments where organised crime increasingly shapes market access, transport reliability and commercial continuity.

While national-level violence figures are stabilising in several countries, risk is becoming more geographically concentrated, with criminal activity continuing to drive supply-chain volatility, transport disruption and personnel security exposure.

Lewis Galvin, Sibylline’s lead Americas analyst and author of the firm’s latest regional security assessment, says the most significant shift for companies is the scale of operational exposure rather than a simple rise in headline violence figures.

“Across many parts of the Americas, organised crime exposure is expanding, and companies increasingly need to understand how these networks shape supply chains, staff movements and operational risk,” he says.

The trend is particularly evident along major transport corridors and export hubs, where criminal groups increasingly control access routes, extortion systems and informal labour networks that influence the movement of goods and personnel.

In Mexico, cartel fragmentation and competition for control of fentanyl production areas have driven persistent security risks across key logistics routes, while in Peru and parts of the Andean region, illegal mining activity has created new concentrations of violence and extortion exposure near extractive-sector operations.

Analysts warn that the risks associated with illegal mining could expand further as global demand for critical minerals accelerates, particularly across the region’s so-called “lithium triangle” spanning Chile, Bolivia and Argentina.

While criminal networks currently focus primarily on gold extraction, gaps in regulatory capacity and limited state presence in remote mining areas could create opportunities for illegal operators to move into emerging mineral sectors.

This includes the increasingly important lithium sector: the so-called lithium triangle encompassing parts of Argentina, Bolivia and Chile holds more than 50% of the world’s known lithium resources.

“There is a world where they begin looking at critical minerals more, and illegal mining networks will get in there as well while there is still a regulatory gap,” Galvin adds.

Despite renewed enforcement pressure across the region, analysts assess that organised crime networks are unlikely to be dismantled in the near term. Instead, intensified security operations often generate short-term spikes in violence while forcing criminal groups to shift tactics.

“Militarised crackdowns rarely eliminate organised crime – they force it to adapt. Networks reconfigure logistics, laundering channels and distribution methods, which means organised crime remains a constant operating risk even as enforcement intensifies,” he says.

A more assertive US regional posture is expected to accelerate this enforcement cycle, with governments across Latin America increasingly deploying military assets and expanding counter-crime operations in response to political pressure and domestic security concerns.

While these measures may reduce violence in specific areas temporarily, they are also likely to create additional disruption risks, including roadblocks, security checkpoints, regulatory volatility and sudden enforcement-driven shutdowns along key commercial routes.

“Conflict in the region doesn’t just mean exposure to violence. It also brings regulatory risks, extortion exposure, checkpoint disruptions and supply-chain delays, particularly along key logistics routes and transport hubs,” Galvin notes.

The impact is expected to be particularly acute for sectors dependent on cross-border transport, extractive operations and large workforce movements, where companies face increasing requirements to manage local security conditions, compliance risks and rapidly changing enforcement environments.

Organised crime networks are becoming structurally more resilient, evolving from hierarchical cartel systems into decentralised, franchise-like operational models that are harder for authorities to dismantle.

“Modern organised crime operates like a franchised business model. Removing one part of the network rarely disrupts the whole system, which is why these ecosystems remain highly resilient,” he says.

While governments across the region are expanding enforcement operations and security crackdowns, analysts say such measures are unlikely to eliminate the underlying threat.

“Even as enforcement intensifies, organised crime groups adapt quickly,” Galvin says.

“They shift routes, methods and revenue streams, which means the risk environment for businesses continues to evolve rather than disappear.”

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