Report Request: Ethiopia Situation Update

Ethiopia’s election result may be largely predictable, but the country’s future is not. This report examines why Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s expected victory could prove less significant than the growing tensions reshaping Ethiopia’s security landscape. From rising friction with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and persistent insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia to the unexpected impact of global energy disruptions on military planning, Sibylline explores the political, security and economic risks likely to define Ethiopia’s trajectory in the months ahead. For businesses and organisations operating in the region, understanding these dynamics will be critical as one of Africa’s most important states enters a period of heightened uncertainty.

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