Scenarios, Triggers for Anti-immigration Unrest in Coming Weeks

More than 12 months on from the worst anti-immigration rioting and inter-community unrest in the UK for over a decade, the conditions for renewed violence persist.

Our Special Report explores the various scenarios and triggers that we assess would spark further unrest in the coming months.

Our Most Likely scenario: Protests continue outside hotels housing asylum seekers; escalation into rioting is unlikely.

Our Most Dangerous scenario: Serious rioting and inter-ethnic violence result in a fatality (or fatalities) and localised breakdowns of law and order as the security forces struggle to contain the unrest.

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