Sibylline Situation Update Brief – Iran
Report
January 7, 2026
Economic collapse and nationwide unrest: Iran’s most significant protests since 2022 🇮🇷
Since 28 December 2025, merchants in the capital Tehran have carried out strikes over deteriorating economic conditions and a sharp currency devaluation, marking the most significant outbreak of protests in Iran since 2022. The Iranian rial (IRR) has lost over 40% of its value amid the resumption of Washington DC’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ sanctions campaign, fuelling the demonstrations’ rapid spread to major cities nationwide.
In our latest Situation Update Brief, our Middle East and Africa desk forecasts the following:
- In the short term, Israel and/or the US are unlikely to launch airstrikes targeting Iran; however, the risk of airstrikes will increase if protests escalate (and threaten government stability severely).
- Protests are highly likely to continue in major cities across Iran in the coming weeks, increasing operational disruption risks and threats to locally engaged staff.
- The Iranian police and security forces will almost certainly continue to engage in violent crackdowns targeting anti-government protests, significantly increasing security threats to locally engaged staff.
- The Iranian government will likely make limited policy concessions to protesters, undermining mobilisation in major cities in the coming weeks.
- If UN and US sanctions are not eased, economic conditions within Iran are highly unlikely to improve substantively, sustaining the risk of further protests in the coming weeks.
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