Special Report: Russia-Ukraine

On 20 November, various media outlets published leaked drafts and copies of a 28-point peace agreement penned by US and Russian negotiators. US officials have indicated that Washington DC expects both Russia and Ukraine to sign the agreement and thereby end the Russo-Ukrainian war.

If Ukraine (or Russia) refuses to sign the deal before the proposed US deadline of Thanksgiving (27 November), our analysts foresee two main scenarios:

1. In our most likely scenario, the proposed US deadline proves flexible, with the peace plan forming the basis of a new phase of negotiations that protract into 2026. However, the war continues in the meantime.
2. In our less likely (though still realistically possible) scenario, the US doubles down on its deadline, leveraging all economic, military and political levers to coerce both sides into signing and agreeing to a ceasefire before the end of the year. However, its implementation remains extremely challenging.

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