Turkey’s political crisis deepens as Erdogan tightens pressure on opposition

TURKEY

As courts overturn CHP leadership and opposition figures face arrest, analysts warn Turkey’s strongman president is increasingly using state institutions to reshape the political landscape ahead of a looming constitutional battle over his future.

TURKEY’S opposition is facing one of its gravest political crises in years after courts moved to overturn the leadership of the country’s main opposition party in a dramatic escalation of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s widening crackdown on dissent.

The move against the Republican People’s Party (CHP) has deepened fears that Turkey is entering a more dangerous phase in which the judiciary, police and other state institutions are being used to shape the political landscape ahead of a looming constitutional succession dilemma.

On 21 May, an Ankara appeals court annulled the CHP’s 2023 congress vote that elected party leader Özgür Özel and provisionally reinstated former leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who lost the original contest.

The CHP condemned the ruling as a “judicial coup”, while Özel barricaded himself inside party headquarters in Ankara alongside supporters.

Three days later, riot police forcibly entered the building, using pepper spray to clear demonstrators after a tense standoff. Authorities later blocked a planned CHP rally in Izmir, deploying water cannon and pepper spray against gathering supporters.

On the same day, police arrested Güzelbahçe mayor Mustafa Günay after he publicly backed Özel.

The developments come amid a broader crackdown on opposition figures centred on Ekrem İmamoğlu, the jailed Istanbul mayor widely regarded as Erdoğan’s most serious political rival.

İmamoğlu has been held in pre-trial detention since March 2025 on charges the opposition insists are politically motivated.

Since 2024, Turkish authorities have detained hundreds of CHP members, local officials, journalists and activists as part of widening investigations into alleged corruption and extremist links.

A June 2025 Sibylline special report authored by MENA analyst Owen Williams warned that Ankara was likely to attempt to “undermine the organisational structure of the opposition” through judicial intervention, political prosecutions and the possible installation of state-aligned trustees.

Speaking to Sibylline Media, Williams says the latest developments suggest Turkey is entering a more serious phase of political consolidation.

“This marks a significant escalation in the use of state institutions, including the judiciary, against the opposition,” says Williams.

At the centre of the crisis lies Erdoğan’s increasingly difficult constitutional dilemma.

Under Turkey’s current presidential system, Erdogan is approaching the end of what is effectively his final permitted term in office. However, Turkey’s constitution contains a controversial loophole allowing a president to run again if parliament triggers early elections during a second term.

“If parliament calls an early election, he gets another chance for another five years,” Williams says.

But Erdoğan cannot engineer that process alone.

His ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its nationalist allies lack the parliamentary numbers needed to amend the constitution or trigger the process independently.

That has turned Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) into a potential kingmaker.

Williams says Ankara’s recent efforts to revive dialogue around Kurdish issues and the PKK peace process may partly reflect Erdoğan’s search for parliamentary support.

“There is no guarantee there’ll be a CHP government or CHP presidency,” he says. “If you’re representing Kurdish interests, you may look at what’s being offered now and think: why not take it?”

Any overt concessions to Kurdish political actors risk alienating Turkish nationalist voters and Erdoğan’s coalition partner, the ultra-nationalist MHP, whose roots trace back to the far-right Grey Wolves movement.

Analysts believe Ankara is attempting to weaken the CHP before any future election by targeting its organisational cohesion and sidelining its strongest figures.

“If you create an opposition that people aren’t going to vote for, and then you get your election, obviously you win democratically,” Williams says.

Critics increasingly fear Turkey’s elections are becoming structurally tilted long before ballots are cast.

Earlier today, reinstated former CHP leader Kılıçdaroğlu signalled the crisis could enter a new phase after saying the party would hold a fresh congress once “legal conditions” had been met.

The comments suggested the intervention was evolving into a broader restructuring of the opposition.

Despite mounting repression, Erdoğan’s position is not entirely secure.

The CHP performed strongly in the 2024 local elections, retaining Istanbul and Ankara, while İmamoğlu emerged as a rare opposition figure capable of appealing beyond the party’s secular base.

Williams says Erdogan still retains substantial support among conservative and rural voters, but argues widespread unease over democratic erosion has become increasingly visible.

“The protests over the last year have shown quite clearly there is widespread discontent,” he says. “Not even necessarily just with the government, but with the government’s handling of democracy and opposition.”

Turkey’s worsening economic pressures have compounded the political strain.

Inflation, currency instability and declining living standards have eroded public confidence, fuelling frustration among younger urban voters and investor concerns about stability. Turkish markets have also reacted nervously to the latest political turmoil, with concerns growing over institutional instability and investor confidence.

Yet Western governments may ultimately prove reluctant to confront Ankara aggressively.

Turkey remains a NATO member and critical regional actor bordering Syria, Iraq and Iran.

Under Erdoğan, Ankara has also sought to establish itself as an increasingly autonomous regional power balancing relations between Russia, NATO and the wider Middle East.

“Turkey under Erdoğan has been establishing itself slowly as a sort of regional hegemon,” Williams says.

He says Ankara has developed considerable military influence through its expanding defence industry and drone capabilities, even as relations with Europe have steadily deteriorated.

While Turkey’s EU accession process remains formally alive, Williams says it has effectively stalled amid years of mutual frustration and concerns over democratic decline.

“The CHP is still very pro-EU,” he says. “A CHP government would probably be more invested in making the changes required to become a more credible candidate.”

But Williams warns the stakes extend far beyond Turkey itself.

“Turkey has maintained one of the more competitive political systems in the MENAT region for a long time,” he says.

“The democratic decline within Turkey carries not only domestic and regional implications, but also contributes to a broader global trend toward the concentration of power and the erosion of democratic and institutional norms.”

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