UK-Ireland National Resilience Monitor
Report
March 26, 2026
The world is experiencing its most significant period of geopolitical flux for decades. Old assumptions that the relative peace enjoyed since the end of the Cold War will continue indefinitely are being challenged sharply by new geopolitical realities. Adversaries are determined to overturn the established order which has facilitated the relative prosperity of the last three decades. As a major beneficiary of globalisation and a key node in the global financial system, the UK is particularly vulnerable to this changing world order.
British military and intelligence leaders are now openly acknowledging the scale of the threats we face, which amount to an undeclared state of conflict with major state adversaries, including China and, chief of all, Russia. This undeclared conflict is insidious, ambiguous and unclear by design, but the threats it poses to our way of life, to our economies and our business operations are clear and present.
The UK is already highly vulnerable to shocks, given its over-reliance on JIT supply chains; insufficient naval and military capacity to protect shipping; very low levels of stockpiling; limited domestic industrial and agricultural capacity; and a general lack of awareness of the sheer scale of the threats. Ensuring that private sector organisations, the government and the general public understand the mounting threats arrayed against our society is at the heart of Sibylline’s new monitoring project.
This new series – published every fortnight – will monitor, assess and forecast threats to national resilience for the UK and Ireland. The aim is to improve awareness and inform resilience planning for organisations operating in the UK and beyond, helping them not only to prepare and survive, but to thrive in an increasingly unstable and contested world.
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