What if a Russian jet gets shot down over NATO airspace?

In this Special Report we assess that Russia is actively testing NATO resolve and attempting to undermine Article 5, which is the cornerstone of the alliance’s collective defence principle. Russia’s recent drone incursions in Poland – followed by a 12-minute violation of Estonian airspace by three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets – point to an escalation of this strategy. 

Our report considers a number of scenarios, all of which are triggered by the hypothetical downing of a Russian jet:

• Our most likely scenario: Russia retaliates by escalating its grey-zone hybrid warfare campaign against Europe, driving threats to sectors including defence, energy logistics and shipping. 
• Our primary realistic alternative scenario: Russia downs a NATO aircraft in retaliation to Europe’s downing of a jet. Although a de-escalation is ultimately likely, foreign businesses are likely to evacuate staff and pause investments in the Baltic states amid malinformation campaigns designed to sow panic. 
• Our most dangerous scenario: A direct Russia-NATO conflict, a scenario we ultimately regard as having a remote probability.

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