Will the US conduct military action in Venezuela in the next 6-12 months?

At Sibylline, our structured scenario analyses turn uncertainty into decision-relevant insight — not to predict headlines, but to identify credible scenarios before they occur.

We assessed in our Most Likely scenario (published in a Special Report on 23 December) that the US would maintain an elevated military posture in the Caribbean and retain the option to strike OCG assets inside Venezuela. We specifically identified drug-trafficking positions (including distribution hubs) as priority targets. Reports over the last 24 hours indicate that the CIA conducted a drone strike against a port facility in Venezuela allegedly linked to the Tren de Aragua OCG.

While details of the strike’s precise location remain limited, the reported activity aligns closely with Sibylline’s assessment.

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