Will Yemen’s civil war resume in the next 6-12 months?

On 3 December, the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) launched an operation in eastern Hadhramaut governorate, initiating an escalation that resulted in the Saudi-led coalition striking an alleged UAE arms shipment bound for the STC in Mukalla on 31 December. Rising Saudi–UAE tensions culminated in the suspension of flights from Aden International Airport on 1 January.

In Sibylline’s latest Special Report, we assess the potential for escalation over the next 6–12 months. Our ‘Most Likely’ scenario forecasts the STC consolidating control in southern Yemen, with sporadic clashes with Saudi-backed factions but limited broader escalation. Conversely, our ‘Most Dangerous’ scenario involves the STC declaring southern independence, triggering direct Saudi and UAE intervention and a return to widespread civil conflict.

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