Will Yemen’s civil war resume in the next 6-12 months?

On 3 December, the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) launched an operation in eastern Hadhramaut governorate, initiating an escalation that resulted in the Saudi-led coalition striking an alleged UAE arms shipment bound for the STC in Mukalla on 31 December. Rising Saudi–UAE tensions culminated in the suspension of flights from Aden International Airport on 1 January.

In Sibylline’s latest Special Report, we assess the potential for escalation over the next 6–12 months. Our ‘Most Likely’ scenario forecasts the STC consolidating control in southern Yemen, with sporadic clashes with Saudi-backed factions but limited broader escalation. Conversely, our ‘Most Dangerous’ scenario involves the STC declaring southern independence, triggering direct Saudi and UAE intervention and a return to widespread civil conflict.

Request a copy of the report below.

First Name *

Last Name *

Email Address *

Organisation *

Job Title *

Country *AfghanistanAlbaniaAlgeriaAmerican SamoaAndorraAngolaAnguillaAntarcticaAntigua & BarbudaArgentinaArmeniaArubaAscension IslandAustraliaAustriaAzerbaijanBahamasBahrainBangladeshBarbadosBelarusBelgiumBelizeBeninBermudaBhutanBoliviaBosnia and HerzegovinaBotswanaBouvet IslandBrazilBritish Indian Ocean TerritoryBritish Virgin IslandsBruneiBulgariaBurkina FasoBurundiCabo VerdeCambodiaCameroonCanadaCaribbean NetherlandsCayman IslandsCentral African RepublicChadChileChinaChristmas IslandCocos IslandsColombiaComorosCongo, Democratic Republic of theCongo, Republic of theCook IslandsCosta RicaCroatiaCubaCuraçaoCyprusCzechiaCôte d’IvoireDenmarkDjiboutiDominicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEgyptEl SalvadorEquatorial GuineaEritreaEstoniaEswatiniEthiopiaFalkland IslandsFaroe IslandsFijiFinlandFranceFrench GuianaFrench PolynesiaFrench South TerritoriesGabonGambiaGeorgiaGermanyGhanaGibraltarGreeceGreenlandGrenadaGuadeloupeGuamGuatemalaGuernseyGuineaGuinea-BissauGuyanaHaitiHeard Island And Mcdonald IslandHondurasHong Kong SAR ChinaHungaryIcelandIndiaIndonesiaIranIraqIrelandIsle of ManIsraelItalyJamaicaJapanJerseyJordanKazakhstanKenyaKiribatiKosovoKuwaitKyrgyzstanLao People’s Democratic RepublicLatviaLebanonLesothoLiberiaLibyaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMacao SAR ChinaMadagascarMalawiMalaysiaMaldivesMaliMaltaMarshall IslandsMartiniqueMauritaniaMauritiusMayotteMexicoMicronesiaMoldovaMonacoMongoliaMontenegroMontserratMoroccoMozambiqueMyanmarNamibiaNauruNepalNetherlandsNew CaledoniaNew ZealandNicaraguaNigerNigeriaNiueNorfolk IslandNorth KoreaNorth MacedoniaNorthern Mariana IslandsNorwayOmanPakistanPalauPalestinian TerritoriesPanamaPapua New GuineaParaguayPeruPhilippinesPitcairn IslandsPolandPortugalPuerto RicoQatarRomaniaRussiaRwandaRéunionSaint HelenaSaint Kitts and NevisSaint LuciaSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesSamoaSan MarinoSaudi ArabiaSenegalSerbiaSeychellesSierra LeoneSingaporeSint MaartenSlovakiaSloveniaSolomon IslandsSomaliaSouth AfricaSouth Georgia and South SandwichSouth KoreaSouth SudanSpainSri LankaSt. BarthélemySt. MartinSt. Pierre & MiquelonSudanSurinameSvalbard and Jan MayenSwedenSwitzerlandSyriaSão Tomé & PríncipeTaiwanTajikistanTanzaniaThailandTimor-LesteTogoTokelauTongaTrinidad & TobagoTunisiaTurkeyTurkmenistanTurks & Caicos IslandsTuvaluU.S. Virgin IslandsUS Minor Outlying IslandsUgandaUkraineUnited Arab EmiratesUnited KingdomUnited States of America (USA)UruguayUzbekistanVanuatuVatican CityVenezuelaVietnamWallis And Futuna IslandsWestern SaharaYemenZambiaZimbabwe

How did you hear about us? *WebsiteClientEventLinkedIn / Social MediaWebinarSearchOther

Consent *

By clicking submit, I consent to receive electronic marketing communications. 

Click here to request the report